What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
➕
Plus
981
Ṁ470k
2029
8%
Disclose Aliens are real.
22%
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
3%
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
16%
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
7%
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
5%
Trump is seen shirtless
28%
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
4%
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
30%
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
50%
Dow rises above 65,000
22%
BTC falls below $38,000
10%
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
3%
Ann Selzer arrested
2%
New US national anthem
7%
US Invasion of any North/South American country
25%
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
17%
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
7%
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
1.8%
A hurricane will be nuked
55%
New national park created

Add your own answers!

Unless otherwise specified:

  1. "Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)

  1. "Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.

  2. If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.

  3. "Trump's Second Term" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market.

I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.

Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved.

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Trump has already shown that he wants to end the genocide in Gaza, the one issue that I thought he would be worse than Joe Biden on (both are beholden to Israel).

If he gets us out of the WHO and WTO and one man can pray, NATO, he will go down as the best president of my lifetime. By far.

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@skibidist it's just occurred to me that technically the wording doesn't mention Trump being the one having sex, as long as he is filmed thrusting for any reason (e.g. dancing badly, trying to scoot his chair forward etc.), someone could edit that footage into a separate sex tape lol

@Phill @Bayesian Does anything actually have to happen for this to resolve? It's a made-up position, it exists insofar as they tweet about it. Elon Musk is this because they've verbally dubbed him this. If they just keep talking about it in those terms, make a twitter account for it (I assume they already have), etc., is that a YES? What is the official barometer?

@Bayesian There should be a 'Bans vaccine mandates.' option. Important distinction.

Also, you should add 'Discloses aliens exist.'.

You just never know with this guy. Reminds me of the legendary @SteveSokolowski in the sense that you never know where the boundary of reality/truth and just pure, unparalleled trolling exists. Nothing is True and Everything is Possible, Oh Dear.

It's like he's bored in a game of Civilization VI and doesn't really care about any of the victory conditions and just wants to keep playing.

bought Ṁ45 YES

insert my goals are beyond your understanding meme

https://xcancel.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1875050089305252190#m

TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING

Damn the term hasn't even started yet and he's already doing third person lol

donal dump be blomal brumpf dummy dumb

@Symmetry This is all I have to say on the matter.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Symmetry well said

@Vorak Does this include an extension of existing tax cuts?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 no, I meant it to be a substantive reduction from where we're already at

Please add “Cybercrime will finally be enforced properly in this nation”

@Predictor Can you elaborate? How would you determine that?

bought Ṁ500 NO

@Bayesian

Can't happen during Trumps term, since he is already dead.

@Bayesian bump!

@Phill @Bayesian for this question to resolve "YES" will Supreme Court need to explicitly deny review for a question about Obergefell v. Hodges or will it resolve "YES" if the court simply doesn't revisit it before the end of Trump's term

@AaronSimansky not revisit also includes that its just never brought before the supreme court so they never even talk about it

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Marnix Do you think he's lying about not reading it?

@Shai Oh absolutely not - I remember reports out of his last administration of him not spending a ton of time reading intelligence briefings and other memos people put in front of him. People I know who have read the Project 2025 doc have characterized it as being a slog, so I doubt he'd see something that big and read all of it. I do think Trump probably has SOME level of knowledge about it, but only to the extent that it's been summarized to him by aides and other people around him

It kinda looks to me like it isn't visible in his Time Person of the Year cover, does anyone agree? His face is a uniform non-orange skin colour that matches his hands

compare for example

or

working criteria: it's not visible on him in multiple consecutive well lit public appearances over multiple weeks

Obviously per my given criteria one pic isn't enough and his term hasn't started yet, but there's a chance he might do it again

@TheAllMemeingEye I think it may just be that they muted the colors for the cover tbh

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