Wikipedia maintains a list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_and_demonstrations_in_the_United_States_by_size
The hands off protest of April 5th took the 5th position, with between 3 and 5 million participants. Will another protest in the US, before July 7th, unambiguously earn a position in the top 10? (This would require at least 1 million participants in a single day.)
(To be clear: vandalism to Wikipedia will not count. The protest must be independently and reputably reported with sufficient participation.)
Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Organizer Claim Requirement: Organizers must claim more than 1 million participants in a single day.
Use of Independent Sources: Resolution will prioritize independent media estimates. If these are unavailable, the largest single location independent estimate will be used.
Fermi Estimate Fallback: A Fermi estimate based on a half dozen local events with independent reporting will be applied. If this estimate is less than 2 million, the market will resolve as NO.
Role of Wikipedia: Wikipedia is used solely as the source for the top 10 threshold and is not the basis for the resolution criteria.
1,000
3.00The Wikipedia page only says 3,000,000, not 5, and the 3,000,000 links to a Verge article which specifically says that the number was from organizers and was not verified.
Will you resolve YES if Wikipedia again uses unverified organizer estimates?
@CraigDemel no. I used 5 million as that was the entry status at the time of market creation, I did not check it. Wikipedia is not the resolution criteria, it's the source for "top 10" threshold.
My resolution intention: organizers must claim more than a million participants in one day And I will:
Try to find independent media estimates, if none exist then
use largest single location independent estimates, if too small then
Fermi estimate off of a half dozen local events with independent reporting
I'll note that if the fermi estimate is less than 2 million, I'll resolve no.
@ArtimisFowl Thanks! Given that organizers will definitely claim large numbers and very few local news organizations gave independent estimates for Hands Off, this is an easy YES.