Trump

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Will all living presidents attend Trump’s inauguration?94% chance

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Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?1% chance

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What will Trump do on Day 1 of being President?

97%

Post on Twitter/X

95%

Sign at least five executive orders

95%

Sign at least two executive orders

93%

Sign ≥10 executive orders

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Trump impose large tariffs in first year?56% chance

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Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?29% chance

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What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

6%

Disclose Aliens are real.

22%

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

3%

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

16%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

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What will Trump's first executive order be about?

60%

Immigration/The Border

30%

Pardons/January 6th

3%

Other

1.8%

Government/Regulations/Elections

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Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?80% chance

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Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?42% chance

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If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?73% chance

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If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?81% chance

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Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?31% chance

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When will Trump serve time?

91%

Never

0%

2023 (NO)

0.4%

2024

1.6%

2025

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