When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")?
7
Ṁ1384
Jun 24

Invalid contract

  • Update 2025-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to N/A if the following conditions are met:

    • Grok 3.5 is released.

    • AND at the time of Grok 3.5's release, there is no indication that Grok 3.0 Thinking is forthcoming.

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@Bayesian how will this question be resolved? The next model will likely be 3.5 and I don't think we will get Grok 3 Thinking

@Fynn

i don't even see grok 3 thinking beta in the api, confusion

@Bayesian maybe close and N/A if nobody has a better idea?

@Fynn I think I’ll na if / when 3.5 drops with no indication of 3.0 thinking coming out

why is april not near 0? are we assuming it might actually have been released as grok 3.1 already (per https://x.com/testingcatalog/status/1920806273324331055)?

bought Ṁ1 ???

How does this resolve if it's not released by end of Jan 2026?

@outsideness it's a bit cursed bc it's probable that they're just rebranding grok 3 to grok 3.5 bc of further post training but i think the intent is for jan 2026 to be "jan 2026 or later / never"? I'm not sure

bought Ṁ5 ???

@Bayesian OK, I'll hold you to that

@outsideness Bad idea, i said im not sure. Either it’s that or I N/A the market due to the ambiguity.

@Bayesian well, I think it's how these new date markets are meant to work, just like other numeric markets work

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