When will xAI release Grok 4?
Plus
53
Ṁ21k2026
98.7%
Before August 2025
99%
Before September 2025
99%
Before October 2025
99.1%
Before November 2025
99.2%
Before December 2025
99.4%
Before 2026
99%
Before February 2026
99%
Before March 2026
99%
Before April 2026
Minor changes to the name, such as using "Grok 4-reasoning" or "Grok 4-beta" instead of "Grok 4", are acceptable when determining the release.
To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution.
If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4 (this market)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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