Background

Elon Musk and Donald Trump have maintained a complex relationship, with Musk recently supporting Trump's return to X (formerly Twitter) and expressing alignment on some policy issues. However, analysts identify several potential friction points between the two high-profile figures:

• Tesla's significant business interests in China conflict with Trump's proposed aggressive trade policies

• Both figures compete for media attention and public influence

• Disagreements over H-1B visas and immigration policy

• Tesla's dependence on Taiwan for semiconductors amid complex U.S.-China relations

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if any of the following occur before December 31, 2025:

• Either Trump or Musk makes explicit public statements criticizing or denouncing the other

• Either publicly withdraws previously stated support

• Either blocks the other on social media

• Credible media reports with direct sources confirm a significant deterioration in their relationship

The market will resolve NO if none of these events occur by December 31, 2025.

Considerations

• Both figures are known for sometimes making provocative statements that they later walk back

• The definition of a "fallout" could be subjective in some cases

• The outcome may be influenced by the 2024 presidential election results and subsequent policy decisions