Who will be the next Pope?

Premium

193

Ṁ110k

2030

35%

Pietro Parolin

27%

Luis Antonio Tagle

Other

Péter Erdő

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Peter Turkson

Matteo Zuppi

1.6%

Robert Sarah

1.1%

Willem Eĳk

Mario Grech

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve when a new Pope is officially elected following either:

The death of Pope Francis
The resignation of Pope Francis

The market will resolve in favor of whichever cardinal is elected as the next Pope by the College of Cardinals and accepts the position. If the elected Pope chooses a name not previously associated with their cardinal name, resolution will still be based on their identity as a cardinal.

The market is single-choice, only answers with names indicating a single person will be possible of choice.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Religion

#Elections

#International Elections

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

191 Holders

3.3k Trades

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Are you aware that betting on a new pope is an excommunicable offence?

https://nodumbideas.com/p/betting-on-the-pope-was-the-original

opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 18% order

I lost 40k mana overnight… gonna make it all back on this market

boughtṀ1,000 YES

@iPad9thGenCnuO do you have some kind of insider info or what lmao

Meeting JD was that bad huh

Wtf. I was watching conclave just yesterday night. I had like 500 mana on the pope living.

It's an interesting topic, because as far as I understand, a new Pope is to be elected in the near future.

https://chatgpt.com/share/68066286-fad4-8004-a116-3650282c97ce

o3 is incredible. It has exactly the odds here without looking at the market.

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 1.0% order

Who is the most progressive option available?

@TheWabiSabi mixed bag. Wrt homosexuals Zuppi. Wrt celibasy, the expectation would be Turkson, though other respects he would be one of the most conservative. Not sure about the stances on the latin mass, which for some would be a measure of conservativism or progressivism

I was thinking Turkson for a while, but there seems to be an anti-Trump backlash in many places, like in Canada. Plus, Francis expanded the college to the largest number of cardinals ever, many of whom could be expected to follow his views.

I think there might be a surprise here. I'm not buying more of Turkson or any of the conservative candidates.

bought Ṁ25 YES

Dear lord please guide the Cardinals to elect a pope capable of guiding your church into the future.

Prime boosting target of a market.

@ScipioFabius yes. I actually did boost it a while back, too mana poor this time tho

As mentioned, I could close the market at any time from now on, indicatively I would like to do it when there is white smoke.

https://manifold.markets/Emanuele1000/who-will-be-the-next-pope#4v6i237olwx