Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the date on which the new pope is officially elected. The election is considered complete when the chosen cardinal accepts the papacy, selects a papal name, and the Vatican announces "Habemus Papam" ("We have a pope") from the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica. (usccb.org)

Background:

Pope Francis, who led the Roman Catholic Church since 2013, passed away on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88. (reuters.com) His papacy was marked by efforts to reform and modernize the Church, often facing internal divisions and challenges. His passing marks the end of a significant and transformative era in the Church’s history.

Considerations:

The conclave's duration can vary. Historically, it has taken between one to three days to elect a new pope, but the process can extend longer if consensus is not quickly reached. (crossroadsinitiative.com) Traders should monitor Vatican announcements for updates on the conclave's progress.