Will consult major news sources as well as statements from Israel, Hamas, and mediating countries to determine whether a ceasefire deal has been agreed to by both sides. market closes on january 20th, 2025.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Ceasefire Agreement: Any agreement between both sides that involves a cessation of hostilities counts as a ceasefire agreement, even if it is part of a longer series of phased negotiations for more far-reaching settlements of the conflict. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Ratification by Israeli Cabinet: The ceasefire agreement must be officially ratified by the Israeli cabinet to be considered valid. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00Deal = signed
Votes on Friday/Saturday, comes into effect on Monday.
Not calling for a YES resolution yet, but this time feels real...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-and-hamas-sign-hostage-ceasefire-deal-after-mediators-iron-out-final-kinks/
The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a source briefed on the talks tells CNN.
Seems like this resolves YES, but probably waiting for better sources
@Gabrielle Also a risk that the Arabic version of the agreement that Hamas have agreed to and the Hebrew/English one the Israeli government have are different.
Apparently Hamas thinks it agreed to being able to dictate which murderers are released, while the Israelis believe they have veto powers.
@Epistemic_Trespasser from the draft, https://whyy.org/articles/draft-ceasefire-deal-israel-hamas-what-to-know/, the ceasefire deal is not something decided on at a single date but an ongoing process of negotiation, as the second phase of the deal will take place after the first phase starts but before it finishes (Day 16).
Are you interested in the prospects of the entire deal being completed, or the just the initial first phase being agreed upon? (The second phase, covering the complete withdrawal of Gaza, seems most likely to me where negotiations might subsequently fall apart and the deal collapse).
@parhizj any agreement between both sides that involves a cessation of hostilities counts as a cease fire agreement even if the agreement is part of a longer series of phased negotitions for more far reaching settlements of the conflict.
@Epistemic_Trespasser I was a little too late to this market...
@MingCat Trump's team is signalling that they don't need this to happen post-inauguration via Witkoff, and Biden might rush it to ensure it doesn't turn into his Iran hostages just in case they're lying. Plan already has lots of specific numbers (33 hostages, 42 days), and isn't permanent, so it seems realistic.