Israel Ceasefire

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Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal before Trump’s inauguration?94% chance

Plus

When will the hostilities in Gaza end?

73%

Jan 2025 or earlier

90%

Feb 2025 or earlier

85%

Mar 2025 or earlier

98.3%

April 2025 or earlier

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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]

98%

Before the end of Jun 2025

98%

Before the end of Dec 2025

98%

Before the end of Jun 2026

99%

Before the end of Dec 2026

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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?10% chance

Plus

Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?31% chance

Plus

[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?10% chance

Plus

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?19% chance

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