Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
Basic
27
Ṁ1131
2026
10%
chance

Note that if OpenAI ends of changing their naming scheme to something else, I will count it if the model appears to be the one mentioned in this blog post: https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/

Additionally, it will only be resolved yes if 3.5 Opus sustains its position for the entire first month after both models are listed in the leaderboards, so if it passes GPT-5 temporarily due to noise it will not count.

  • Update 2025-07-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that successor models, such as Opus 4, will not count for this market. The market is strictly about Claude 3.5 Opus. The creator has stated that if the resolution conditions are not met, the market will likely resolve to N/A.

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Does Opus 4 count?

@SCS Sadly it does not. Looks like this market is gonna N/A

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