Manifest 2025 Prop Bets

300

Ṁ270k

Jun 9

87%

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

79%

Someone breakdances competently

11%

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

93%

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

Someone proposes with a ring (should be legit between a couple that were already together but not yet engaged)

74%

There is a Karaoke Event

39%

There is an orgy

10%

There is more than one orgy

99%

10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend

88%

2 Contestants and a Host successfully ante into the pot for Nash Pit. (The game show begins.)

41%

20-25 festiman pret bop (a man in his early 20s slaps a sandwich while wearing some kind of seasonal festival attire)

88%

3 people kiss each other at once who have not kissed each other before

90%

>10 people sing concurrently in the dome

47%

>2 people play an Irish jig in unison

99%

>4 people group hug

36%

>5 people interrupt a talk by standing up and singing at least 30 seconds of "Do You Hear the People Sing?"

92%

>7 people unearnest conga line

23%

@jskf sings a song (full song, on stage) at the karaoke event

47%

@Zoli hosts a wrestling event

Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be

Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Manifest

#Manifest 2025

#Manifold

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

297 Holders

2.5k Trades

Sort by:

5 tails coin flips done

https://drive.google.com/file/d/19UasLbANt_oT4E5PKHlHX8_-WIqpkOWo/view?usp=drivesdk

bought Ṁ900 YES

Quite easy

https://drive.google.com/file/d/19UasLbANt_oT4E5PKHlHX8_-WIqpkOWo/view?usp=drivesdk

bought Ṁ394 YES

This happened at the marble track making event at Bayes Ground just now

Oh shit Krantz is here, should I unresolve his N/A options? Not that I, uh, have any bias.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Joshua if you can that would be interesting haha

@SteveSokolowski does this include manifest itself?

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Joshua this should resolve "yes", an attendee called "Alok Singh" brought his Apple Vision and we were playing around with it.

@Simon1 Seconding that Alok is here with an Apple Vision.

@ukaszBartoszcze this should resolve yes

@Joshua would be the one to resolve in this case

bought Ṁ759 YES

@ukaszBartoszcze nathan young is wearing such an outfit

Looks like the balloon popped around 33.76 km. Thanks for playing, if you want us to send sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere instead of calcium carbonate to cool Earth, you can either donate and get a tax deduction https://givebutter.com/makesunsets or buy direct: https://makesunsets.com/products/join-the-next-balloon-launch-and-cool-the-planet

If you're not familiar with what we do, here is a good primer: https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/so2-injection or an entertaining video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIrwLzUJdWY

Make Sunsets

By University Impact

👀

66k ft or 20km reached! https://aprs.fi/#!call=a%2Fkf0mds-e0&timerange=3600&tail=3600

If you want to track the balloon. Targeting 66,000 ft https://aprs.fi/info/?call=kf0mds-e0

This happened

bought Ṁ5 NO

@TylerTracy how were you doing?

@256 i would LOVE to see video of this if anyone attempts it

filled a Ṁ188 YES at 99.0% order

@Joshua Witnessed this in person.

bought Ṁ400 YES

@Joshua seems like this should be resolved Y

bought Ṁ25 YES

@256 Already happened at least twice during Summer Camp and I will be attending several AI Welfare talks. You can also just come up to me and start a deep discussion. If anyone wants to get in on this market

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Clark im not at manifest 💔 but i hope you can find a crying partner

@Clark Should resolve yes - during Aella's live polling I talked to a guy who said he cried this morning (while staying at Lighthaven) plus I just cried a little in the Garden and had a couple guys witness me including @MaxBolingbroke (hope I'm tagging the correct Max B)

@Clark can confirm - tears were witnessed

Related questions

Related questions