Weaker version of https://manifold.markets/JessicaEvans/will-transgender-us-passports-with
For an N=1 case study, see https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-kimmys-transgender-mtf-passpor
Will a trans-allied news source like Erin Reed, them.us, NCTE, etc. report that many people (N>=5) whose gender marker differs from the one assigned at birth are unable to renew their passport? By any means, including legislative or administrative.
Also resolves YES if:
The sister market resolves YES (passports are revoked) or
A mainstream news source or trans-critical news source reports this occurring (I somewhat don’t expect them to.), or
Such passports may be renewed only if the recipient agrees to “correct” their gender marker to match the one assigned at birth
Resolves NO if:
Number of individuals affected is < 5
Such a source reports that everyone is also having trouble renewing passports (stricter ID requirements, dismantling of USPS, destaffing, etc) — gender mismatch must be stated as a contributing factor to count as YES
>=5 anecdotal posts describing this happening to individuals on Bluesky, Twitter, etc can be found, but are not being reported as systemic/widespread, even by trans-allied journalists
I believe this is somewhat likely (>20% probability), but I won’t participate.
Update 2025-24-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
Resolve YES when any of the following occur:
Case studies of individuals with X gender markers unable to renew their passports (at least 2 instances).
By June 1, if it remains common knowledge that people with X gender markers cannot renew (i.e., no material legal challenges and agencies have begun implementing the Executive Order's directive).
Update 2025-24-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Secretary of State Marco Rubio directed the State Department to freeze passport renewals and applications for individuals with an “X” sex marker.
All current and future applications requesting an “X” sex marker are being suspended pending additional guidance from the Department.
Resolve YES in 14 days unless there are substantial legal challenges or other developments pending additional guidance from the Department.
1,000
3.00@traders Unresolved. Moments ago I had erroneously resolved this market thinking we had a case study of someone failing to renew their passport, but it turns out we’re still waiting for confirmed cases.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFZNz6rxZmx/?igsh=QkJKc0Rob0hsWA%3D%3D
This person said she was applying for a renewal, but in the comments, it’s revealed this person actually applied for a gender change, not a renewal without gender change.
Sorry for jumping the gun. I’m a bit on edge with everything going on.
State department no longer processing gender change applications: https://www.reddit.com/r/transgender/comments/1i7wakb/state_department_may_have_halted_processing_for/?rdt=50314
(Unclear to me whether anecdotal reports of confiscation are for supporting evidence submitted or for the passports themselves)
@EmilyConn I will resolve YES when any of the following happen:
We find case studies of anyone with X passport markers who say they already can't renew; or
On June 1, 1 if common wisdom still remains that people with X markers can't renew (e.g. there are no material legal challenges and agencies start to implement the EO's directive by then)
The EO would be sufficient if implemented as-is, but right now feels premature:
It is a policy directive and doesn't specify implementation. Different agencies will decide how to handle this, and to my knowledge they have not yet done so;
There could be legal challenges that strike parts of it down before they trouble anyone;
It doesn't go into effect until 30 days from its writing anyway.
@KJW_01294 Hmmmm we're closer than I had thought. Secretary of State Marco Rubio directed the state department to freeze passport renewals and applications this afternoon, according to NBC:
As a result, the memo continues, the State Department will no longer issue “X” sex markers for U.S. passports or birth records for U.S. citizens with children born abroad. It directs employees to suspend all applications requesting an “X” sex marker or a sex marker change, adding that employees should “not take any further action” on those applications “pending additional guidance from the Department.”
The memo applies to all applications currently in progress and any future applications, the memo states, adding that guidance on existing passports containing an “X” sex marker “will come via other channels.”
Sounds like applications and renewals currently in-flight are being held now.
I will resolve YES in 14 days unless there are substantial legal challenges or other developments "pending additional guidance from the Department." Consider selling your NO positions unless you have faith in the legal system.
I didn't originally anticipate people with X on passports would decide this market, but that's a lot of gender-nonconforming Americans whose passports are suddenly unrenewable because of their gender, so it counts in my book.
Erin Reed writes:
> Major news breaking from NOTUS on Trump’s trans passport ban: It will not be retroactive. Very glad I and others encouraged people to get their passports in the lead up to Trump’s inauguration. Now hopefully this EO is defeated in court. https://www.notus.org/whitehouse/trump-gender-sex-order-passports
> It WILL apply when you renew though. For those of you who renewed this year, it should last 10 years, so you can make it through a couple presidential terms.
You may also take this as https://manifold.markets/JessicaEvans/will-transgender-us-passports-with being currently too high at 47%.
