Resolution criteria:

This market resolves to YES if any of the next ten Black individuals born worldwide is elected as the next Pope. The market will remain open until the election occurs or until all ten individuals have been identified and none has been elected Pope, at which point it will resolve to NO.

Background:

Historically, the Catholic Church has had three popes from North Africa:

• Pope Victor I (served circa 189–199 AD)

• Pope Miltiades (served 311–314 AD)

• Pope Gelasius I (served 492–496 AD)

The ethnic backgrounds of these popes are not definitively documented, and it is unclear if they were Black. (blackcatholicmessenger.org)

In recent times, there has been increasing representation of Black clergy in the Church. Notably:

• Cardinal Wilton Gregory became the first African American cardinal in 2020. (cbsnews.com)

• Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana has been considered a potential candidate for the papacy. (newyorker.com)

Despite these advancements, no Black individual has been elected Pope in modern history.