What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?

158

Ṁ7861

2026

93%

Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

91%

Any left-wing group is labelled as a "terrorist organization"

83%

government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

76%

Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

76%

Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

73%

At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

62%

A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

58%

Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

57%

event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

54%

5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

52%

event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

51%

Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

48%

Another political assassination (either side)

40%

Any left-wing NGO is shut down

36%

Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

35%

At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

34%

BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

28%

Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

27%

Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

26%

Evan permabanned from Manifold

Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed. Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event! I'll avoid betting in this market on anything where there could be ambiguity.

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments": the requirement that deportations be forcible is removed; any deportation qualifies.

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law": only a federal (national) bill qualifies; state bills do not.

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": the later assassination must be provably inspired or influenced by the Charlie Kirk assassination, with such proof available by the market close date (2026-09-11).

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@Marnix Can you tell me what "is labelled" means

@Marnix I think this makes two, so far https://bsky.app/profile/karenattiah.bsky.social/post/3lyuo2opb4s2j

Karen Attiah (@karenattiah.bsky.social)

Some personal news: I've been fired from the Washington Post in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk shooting. Thread incoming. https://substack.com/@karenattiah/note/p-173531760?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=2bz6j

I have a bad feeling

bought Ṁ1 NO

I put a tiny bit on NO medal of freedom, seems like a >1% chance Trump gets bored and forgets to do it, unless they already did it and I misunderstood.

@Yakushi12345 doesn't look like they've done it yet, as far as I can tell. Usually they televise these things

bought Ṁ30 YES

Hi! New joiner here, I think some of the bets can be already resolved, right? Is it possible to resolve just some of them?

@MindBenderMads It is!

@Chumchulum the death of Charlie Kirk was too much for Evan to bear

@AmmonLam what? What is the deal?

Edited: nvm, found

@Marnix

From what I can tell, on 9/12 there were 2 swatting attacks:

Newark (multiple schools)
Pasadena (Blair High School)

This is in contrast to swatting attacks on 9/11:

US Naval Academy
Alabama
University of Iowa
Southern University
Clark Atlanta University
Bethune-Cookman University
Hampton University
Virginia State University
Northwood High School

Unless anyone can find evidence of others, this probably resolves no

@Marnix oh yeah that's right the rollback unresolved this lmao

@digory c

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 18% order

@Marnix oups

@Marnix anybody have something to bet on? We can rename this, I pocket diled it

bought Ṁ25 NO

@digory 'Prominent social media account (100k+ followers) banned due to any commentary on the situation'

@digory I'm fairly confident this would already resolve yes, though I'd have to check who's been suspended on bluesky

@Marnix You can up it to like 500k+ then

@digory Here's one: TPUSA supports a gun control bill.

@Marnix oh yuck it can't be edited, NA it

here, i can edit it for you

Matt Dowd's firing counts for this btw

for reference:

for reference: https://www.thepopverse.com/comics-dc-absolute-batman-annual-daniel-warren-johnson

DC's Absolute Batman will be "beating up white nationalists" in new special by Transformers' Daniel Warren Johnson (and he promises it's not subtle)

At San Diego Comic-Con 2025, Daniel Warren Johnson filled us in on details surrounding his story in the upcoming Absolute Batman Annual

remember rule 0: don't commit crimes for market manipulation reasons

@digory not including attempts by law enforcement to arrest a suspect

@digory Would it be alright if I change this to "1+ person injured/killed by attacker claiming retaliation for Kirk's death" purely to make it succinct?

@Marnix it should also resolve true if the attacker is the one hurt, or if anyone else is hurt in the incident

@digory Ah, fair enough, that's fine then

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