What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

543

Ṁ120k

Oct 10

99.6%

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

99.3%

Is named Tyler Robinson

99.1%

20-27 years old

99%

Resided in the same state as the incident

99%

White

99%

Did it on purpose

99%

US citizen

99%

Male

99%

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

99%

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

99%

used a bolt action rifle

99%

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

99%

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

99%

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

99%

disliked Charlie Kirk

99%

Gamer

99%

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

99%

Native English speaker (L1)

99%

Born in the United States

98.9%

Is a registered voter

Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A.

Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Acted alone (no accomplices): any accomplice associated with the shooting counts, including after-the-fact assistance (e.g., destroying evidence). If any such accomplice exists, this answer will not resolve as true.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Charlie Kirk

#Assassinations

#Charlie Kirk shooter

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25 Comments

531 Holders

7.4k Trades

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BBC skips over mention of the furaffinity account

sold Ṁ10 NO

@Dulaman do sexually suggestive but not fully explicit text/drawings count?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@TheAllMemeingEye writing erotic stories would count provided that it was very clearly intended to elicit a sexual response (even if it didn't contain explicit content per-se).

Short-form messages and comments on forums don't count whether or not they are explicit.

reposted

@traders Please check out this related market: /realDonaldTrump/tyler-robinson-sentence

@Dulaman we are putting our brier calibration scores on the line for this? 😭

@256 I think the likelihood of this being true is decently high

Gotta pay those Utah rents somehow

@Dulaman what %? make a limit order

@256 I'm very low IQ and I don't know how to use a computer

sold Ṁ10 YES

@vdb Does someone being charged as an accomplice after the fact count? E.g. for destroying evidence?

@MugaSofer Honestly I think it would be more likely someone would be charged for helping him plan this. Sounds like he might have told some people beforehand about the assasination

@MugaSofer All accomplices associated with the shooting count. If it is an accomplice for destroying evidence of the shooting, that counts.

sold Ṁ16 YES

@KarlK The indictment says "pro-gay and trans-rights oriented". Assuming this is correct, I assume that counts? Or does it need to be a "named" ideology?

@256 Is there any sort of required gun registration in Utah, not from the US so have no idea. It sounds to me he was given the rifle by his grandfather, but the fact he says it would not be linked to him, I am thinking it would not be registered to him, if that was required.

@Xizted i dont think borrowing the weapon from a relative counts as legally acquired if it isn't registered anywhere (with his name on it)

@256 Quick googling suggested Utah doesnt require registration, unless the grandfather is from a different state, that would then mean it was legally acquired if it was given to him