Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025?
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Jun 1
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Resolves early in June 2025 if they haven't sent anything yet because the SpaceX website claims 6 months to reach Mars.

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"At the time NASA announced it would stand down from launch preparations, it said it would pursue a launch no earlier than spring of 2025, but did not disclose details about the trajectory. A launch then would be outside of the usual Mars launch windows, which are available roughly every two years.

Lillis said the mission is now examining launch opportunities in 2025 and 2026. “Now, Mars arrival will be in September 2027,” he said, two years later than previously planned.

Those new launch opportunities involve complex trajectories compared to the direct flight to Mars available during traditional launch windows. He showed several options for launch opportunities in late 2025 and early 2026 that involved what he described as a “kidney bean-shaped dance” around the Earth-sun L-2 Lagrange point before doing an Earth gravity assist to head off to Mars."
https://spacenews.com/escapade-looking-at-2025-and-2026-launch-options/

So no chance of anything arriving before 2027. Also Spacex has neither sent anything nor got anything planned for launch to Mars this year.

So @NJJJ I think this can resolve.

Mars launch windows are every 26 months
Oct 2024 window has passed but not completely closed yet *
Next full window opens ~Dec 2026

These are minimum delta-V Hoymann transfer windows which take ~7-9 months travel time but it doesn't take a lot of extra delta-V to reduce journey time to ~6 months likely using a Hoymann type I orbit which goes less than 180 degrees around sun.

* There is a possible alternate around March 2025 that Escapade flying on New Glenn could take. This is a Hoymann type II orbit that goes more than 180 degrees around sun, I would have expected more than 6 month travel time however apparently the arrival at Mars is planned for September 2025 so it would be in time for a 2025 landing. Edit: Probably not - now seeing it is an 11 month journey from March 2025 which makes more sense and probably suggests arriving by end of Dec 2025 requires launching by about end of February 2025.

Once the March 2025 window closes, it should be ok to resolve this on the sort of reasoning that the creator appears to be using.

SpaceX has indicated first plans to send anything won't be until the Dec 2026 window opens. Starship appears extremely unlikely to be ready to be sent to Mars and land on Mars by the March 2025 window. Legs for landing starship and thrusters located high on the payload sectors are just a couple things we haven't seen being developed yet let alone testing refuelling which needs full orbit to be reached ....

So perhaps even already possible to safely resolve this?

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