Just wanted to note that, in accordance with the market description, I'll resolve the market when the following happens:

1. Ceasefire is officially announced.

2. It is indefinite or long term (more than a couple of months).

3. A week passes without the renewal of hostilities.

@OlegEterevsky Sorry, nevermind

@OlegEterevsky I think that this market would have been better to have resolved retrospectively. For example, there have been X months of stability after the commencement of a ceasefire. This would have led to less confusion.

Right now, based on your definition, there is no way you can resolve the market in Jan (because the ceasefire signed right now is temporary in nature, and is defined for 53 days (so it doesn't pass the "indefinite" criteria). However, you can see the traders misprice it at over 70% vs close to 0%.

@gpt4 I think 53 days should count as long term.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Then read what the market creator wrote just a few comments above.

@gpt4 I agree that it would probably been better to define the market to be resolved say 2 months after the start of the cease-fire. However since it's not what I've initially written, I'll try to stick with the original intent.

I will resolve "Jan 2025" as YES if the following two conditions are met:

1. There's no significant military actions for at least a week starting from Jan 19th.

2. The current ceasefire turns into an indefinite one. To avoid dragging it out, under the current plan I'll do it as soon as Stage 2 details are agreed upon.

Just Stage 1 sounds like a temporary short-term ceasefire to me, so I'm not resolving the market based on that.

@traders does it sound fair?

@OlegEterevsky just a week? Should be 30 days.

@nsokolsky I wrote "a few days" in the original description. Anyway, I doubt the agreement for the 2nd stage will be made so quickly, so we'll have to wait for some time either way.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgq1l5kv2npo

Talks to reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas are 90% complete, but key issues remain that need to be bridged, a senior Palestinian official involved in the talks told the BBC.

“Hostilities” is a very funny way of saying ethnic cleansing and genocide…

@mqudsi If Israel were to stop ethnic cleansing/genocide but keep up hostilities then the market would not resolve

Now that the leader of Hamas is dead, there's nothing stopping Bibi from agreeing to a ceasefire and getting the hostages back.

well there's one pretty important thing: they just killed the guy who was negotiating the ceasefire

No offense to hamas, but I'm pretty sure they won't be dictating terms any time soon.

They killed the leader of the political wing, who had limited real power. Sinwar has all the real control over Hamas in the ways that matter.

Potentially relevant: https://www.npr.org/2024/06/10/nx-s1-5000819/israel-hamas-war-un-security-council-cease-fire-gaza

I've also added a couple of options for later dates.

@OlegEterevsky
How about "later than July 1, 2025"?

@ohadcohen It's equivalent to NO for "June 2025 or earlier"

@OlegEterevsky
Right, I'm new here, Thanks

@ohadcohen No worries. In this market you can vote for each option independently.

The current state: Israel and Hamas dig in as pressure builds for a cease-fire in Gaza.

Resolving March as NO.

“Jul 2024 or earlier” means it must end by July 1st or July 31st?

@nsokolsky In July or earlier, so before August 1st.