Resolves as YES if at least 500 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2031.
Different number of robots:
/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e5827a19aecb
/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-8b5c5fb5bd63
/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-9dad526dc238
/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-dfdcca40f9e1
/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-0cc08ff63d45
/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-0adc84c2523d
/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-abb3fe9a6911
/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-9dce68aa89e4 (this question)
/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have
/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0ebf458206fd
Different years:
/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-ec311a558859
/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-7bcec2feb6cc
/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa
/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-9dce68aa89e4 (this question)
Other questions for 2031:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031
/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec
/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before
/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem
These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.
Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.
@Seeker I think humanoid robots are going to be the most general (can operate in any environment a human can), so will be the easiest design to manufacture at scale. For any given environment it's probably straightforward to come up with a better design, the issue is that specialisation would mean less demand for that new design, and therefore higher cost. Humanoid robots are the design that can expect the highest demand overall.
@RemNi Do you expect humanoid robots for
cleaning
I dont cuz humans back hurts while cleaning floors and cleaning toilets sucks too
car driving
it doesnt look like it
cashier
maybbeeee
scientist
idts
give me examples where a humanoid robot makes sense?
@Seeker I think anything that involves carrying objects from point A to point B in an industrial setting is probably the simplest application. Cleaning is harder because it requires more dexterity. Cashier is hard to anticipate, since a lot of the perceived value for the customer is the human interaction.
@Seeker yes absolutely conveyer belts are cheaper to run, but there's a high barrier to entry to put in a conveyer belt system. If you already have that infrastructure in place it's less compelling to switch. If you don't have that infrastructure in place, then robots are potentially a more viable option