An option resolves YES if the combination of parties holds more than 50 percent of the seats in the Bundestag after the upcoming federal election. It resolves NO if one of the parties doesn't make it into the Bundestag or if the combination of parties holds equal or less than 50 percent of the seats.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST): - The market resolves based on the feasibility of exact coalitions rather than on mathematical majorities. (AI summary of creator comment)
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3.00I'm mostly just looking at this Zeit Dashboard:
They have a Monte-Carlo model of which coalitions will be feasible, and the one that is the most uncertain is the Union-Greens coalition.
@Simon74fe apparently they seem quite convinced that the FDP won't make it. They also weight different pollsters' differently based on their past bias and performance I think. I just kinda blindly trust their authority here.
Intuitively I would agree with you, it still seems plausible for the FDP to come back a bit.
But: if anything, the FDP is on a slow downward trajectory, and I don't know what would change this. But I guess it's possible that an unexpected thing might come up.
@LudwigBald I wouldn't trust them blindly, there are a lot of bad election models out there. This one was a classic: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html
@ErikCorry That's a good point. I've thought about it too. But at the end I've decided to make the market specifically about feasibility of exact coalitions rather than about mathematical majorities. Feel free to create a different market yourself.