What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES]
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21
Ṁ37k
Jun 14
96%
Border checks will last longer than 6 months
Resolved
YES
Cabinet will fall before 31 december 2025
Resolved
YES
BBB won't solve the manure issue for farmers before 2025
Resolved
YES
Pieter Omztig will cry in front of a camera
Resolved
YES
The cabines will see at least one Christmas
Resolved
YES
130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least one road (one 'traject')
Resolved
YES
130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least 50 km of road
Resolved
YES
Dick Schoof run another official race (running)
Resolved
YES
Geert Wilders will say/tweet he is Pro-Trump
Resolved
YES
Geert Wilders visit Israel
Resolved
YES
Schoof will run another Marathon
Resolved
YES
Pieter Omztig will step down
Resolved
YES
Cabinet can't agree on nitrogen approach
Resolved
YES
Cabinet will fall before 1st of September 2025
Resolved
YES
Formation will succeed before the 7th of July
Resolved
YES
Dick Schoof will visit the USA in the first 6 months of the cabinet
Resolved
YES
Pieter Omtzigt needs time off for recovery (longer than 1 month)
Resolved
YES
Emergency law for Migration Crisis will not be implemented

  • Update 2024-27-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Definition of Crying: Having wet eyes in environments such as a cinema is considered crying.

    • Resolution Criteria: Based on how the media perceived the event.

  • Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - As long as Schoof has not resigned, some market responses may remain active.

    • If the Cabinet-Schoof falls:

    • Most market responses will be resolved at that time.

    • Certain specific responses (e.g., a 'border patrol' related response mentioned by the creator) may remain open until a specific condition or time related to that response is met (e.g., a 6-month period).

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@MarnixV it just fell around 10% from 2023 to 2024,and there is no full comparison for 2025 so will resolve no as well.

bought Ṁ710 NO

@TheWabiSabi apart from the questions about the cabinet falling, what do you consider the timeline for the questions? Does a demissionary cabinet Schools still count, or do all the questions resolve when the cabinet falls?

bought Ṁ150 NO

@EvdZ as long as Schoof hasn't resigned I will keep some up. For example they could still replace Faber if they continue.

If they fall today I will only keep the border patrol one open till next week (when it's 6 months).

@TheWabiSabi thinking about resolving this as No or N/A, even though Wilders announced his departed on X. What do you think?

bought Ṁ680 NO

@TheWabiSabi I think the root cause was his ten-point plan, presented during a press conference (not X). And his withdrawal was first announced by those present in the meeting this morning (not X). I'm invested in the outcome, but would argue for a No resolution.

@EvdZ sounds fair and reasonable! No would be good for me as well.

@TheWabiSabi It looks to me like the cabinet is in agreement on a nitrogen approach: https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2025/04/25/kabinet-presenteert-startpakket-om-vergunningverlening-weer-op-gang-te-brengen

Are there signs of dissenters within the cabinet?

Also, whether the courts or parliament will agree is a different matter.

Annoying that many options are described as a negative, very confusing.

@ErwinRossen please add positive ones :)

bought Ṁ5 YES

@TheWabiSabi Presumably you mean combat troops or peacekeeping troops, as opposed to trainers, advisors, cyberwarfare troops or soldiers escorting dutch arms shipments, which may already be in the country.

@Sqeedee yes, thank you for helping making it more clear.

@TheWabiSabi of nobody is against Yes I will resolve yes tomorrow @traders

@TheWabiSabi Pretty cool that someone put this on the list! Well done. I wouldn't have thought of it.

@TheWabiSabi The Instagram link seems to have died, but I watched the thing on YouTube. I have an interest in saying yes but I don't think I saw tears? More like he got 'stuck'?

@TheWabiSabi tough call. i haven't bet on this question, and i won't. But i would say NO, this isn't crying. he's barely holding it in, though.
YT link (480p): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OGrxefEPBQ&t=276s

@Sqeedee Agree, but what is a cry... just wet eyes? Or waterfalls on his face?

It's definitely a hard one...

@uair01 Thank you :)

@TheWabiSabi Maybe we can look at it somewhat objectively by looking at how media is responding to it, if they are using words like 'emotional' (geëmotioneerd).

Or we can compare it to similar recent moments of politicians crying:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjhyHBf330M&t=30s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0XT5We-qes

maybe that last one is also questionable.

I guess you can resolve it as yes.

I suspect we'll see Omtzigt cry some more anyway before the cabinet falls.

@Sqeedee if I was Omtzigt, I would have called it crying. But for me having wet eyes in a cinema is crying as well.

I will resolve yes later today, because of how the media percieved is.

@TheWabiSabi Well, anyone got any photographs?

Or can we resolve this to no?

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Sqeedee I think we can resolve no, did a search and couldn't find any as well

@TheWabiSabi resolving this seems kind of premature? Omtzigt could still take a leave longer than 3 months? (Although I agree this leave was not longer than 3 months)

@EvdZ agree that this could be formulated better. If Omtzigt gets ill again I will unresolve this one, does that feel right?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@traders who has betting ideas to add?

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