These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the exact sequence of words during his 2025 inauguration address/speech.
You can add your own options, but note: (1) I will be strict with resolutions & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.
Resolution may take a few days as I'd like to reference the transcript.
This market will close before the inauguration to return liquidity to submitters.
For reference, here is the transcript for Trump’s 2016 inauguration address.
Resolution rules:
Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions also count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").
An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".
Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".
To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Additional Resolution Guidelines:
The market focuses on the exact words spoken, not on variations based on pronunciation or slang.
Variants like "YUGE" will not be considered equivalent to "huge" unless the exact word appears in the transcript.
1,000
3.00RELATED MARKET: In 2017, Trump's inauguration address was only 1,444 words. Will his 2025 speech be over 50% longer than that?
/Ziddletwix/will-trumps-second-inauguration-add
(Highly relevant for your bets in this market... the longer the speech, the higher all these percentages should be.)
@JaimeSantaCruz "the wall, it's gon be yuge I tell you, you won't believe how yuge it's gonna be, all the way over in gina they'll be talkin about how yuge it is, even yuger than the great wall of gina, they'll be askin me to come over and make their wall as yuge as ours, they'll be sayin make the great wall great again, it's gonna be so great and yuuuuge believe me"
@TheAllMemeingEye LOL 😂. Some commentators wrote that Chyna was going to find the wall to be yuge as well
RELATED MARKET: In 2017, Trump's inauguration address was only 1,444 words. Will his 2025 speech be over 50% longer than that?
/Ziddletwix/will-trumps-second-inauguration-add
(Highly relevant for your bets in this market... the longer the speech, the higher all these percentages should be.)
@JaimeSantaCruz kinda surprised this is trading so much lower than huge given that this is primarily how he says it lol
@TheAllMemeingEye so this market (as made clear in the description) is about words, not "what words sound like".
"Trump said 'huge', but the way he says it is a bit funny so it sounds like 'yuge'", wouldn't be enough for me to resolve it to a different word than "huge". Even if it sounded a bit funny, i would almost certainly just resolve "huge" to YES and "yuge" to NO, because again, it's about the words he said, not what they sound like.
Because I fear that will cause confusion, I'm going to N/A "YUGE", to keep it clear.
There are no perfect universal rules here—some slang words are common enough to be considered their won distinct form, and at some point that would "count". E.g. yes if it showed up as "YUGE" in the transcript, I'd be far more likely to count it (with Trump, it almost never does, because again it's just a funny way that he says the word), but I can't use that as the sole source for the ruling because this is about what is said not how it's transcribed (even if I use the transcript to supplement).
So a bit of a long answer, but to avoid this confusion, I'm going to N/A "YUGE"—I would be extremely unlikely to resolve this YES (without a clear consensus that's the word he said) and I fear people would be confused by the rules.
Some dogwhistle like “secure,” “future,” and “children” in the same sentence
See market for anything Trump says in Year 1 here: https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phrases-will-trump-sa
