I will not bet in this market due to its subjective nature. This resolves based on my perspective at the end of 2025 (if there is ambiguity, I may/will consult with other Manifold superusers).
Clear things that would get this to resolve YES:
-Trump wins, Musk becomes clearly disillusioned by right wing politics and starts heavily criticizing Trump and aligning himself with more centrist or left-wing politics or figures.
-Harris wins, Musk pivots and aligns himself with her or endorses her as a president.
-Musk retracts his endorsement of Musk before the election happens.
-similar things in that vein
Things that would be inadequate for a YES resolution:
-Musk disagrees with Trump on election denialism but still aligns himself with the MAGA/Trump movement.
-Musk publicly admires some executive action or bill passed by Harris or the democratic party.
-Musk criticizes one of Trump's policies.
I would like to see some clear evidence of a political realignment for a YES resolution, even if that realignment is just from right-wing/MAGA/Trumpism to Musk's previous fairly centrist politics.
1,000
3.00would this market resolve YES if it's clear that Musk has pivoted from garden variety technolibertarian to extreme right fascist lunatic?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00