When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved? | Manifold

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

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When this market resolves YES:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?

Resolves to Manifold poll. Will be open for a week and boosted until it gets 100+ participants.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I think this should resolve to N/A because they will actually all be dead before it resolves at all.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The linked market cannot resolve YES. It is a numeric.

@KongoLandwalker i know i just dont care

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 28% order

got a 10k limit order at the market price

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Will >= 57.0% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the January 2025 poll?

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Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will we get AGI before 2039?

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

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By when will we have AGI?

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