This question is referring to Wikipedia's list of presidents of the United States by time in office and what Donald Trump's highest position on that list will be before his death.
Donald Trump spent 1,461 days in office during his first term. He regained the presidency at 12 noon, 20 January 2025. This market should only use Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00), regardless of daylight savings time.
For purposes of this market, round to the nearest integer day when counting time spent in office. For instance, if a president takes office at 12 noon on 20 January of one year (with no leap day) and then leaves office at 1 am on 20 January of the next year, they will have held the office for 364 days and 13 hours (364.54 days). For this market, that duration will round up to 365 days.
The following dates are given for convenience. They are hypothetical and assume that Donald Trump does not leave office between then and now. These dates are not necessarily binding with respect to market resolution:
19th place on 22 March 2026 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 1,887 days in office, passing Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1,886.
18th place on 10 August 2026 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 2,028 days in office, passing Richard Nixon’s 2,027.
17th place on 24 August 2026 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 2,042 days in office, passing Calvin Coolidge’s 2,041.
16th place on 11 July 2028 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 2,729 days in office, passing Theodore Roosevelt’s 2,728.
15th place on 31 October 2028 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 2,841 days in office, passing Harry S. Truman’s 2,840.
14th place on 25 November 2028 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 2,866 days in office, passing George Washington’s 2,865.
2nd place (13-way tie) on 20 January 2029 – If he leaves office on this date, Trump would finish with 2,922 days in office, matching the twelve other two-term presidents.
2nd place on 21 January 2029 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 2,923 days in office, passing the twelve two-term presidents’ tenures of 2,922 days.
1st place on 1 March 2033 – If uninterrupted, Trump would reach 4,423 days in office, passing Franklin D. Roosevelt’s record of 4,422.
Related markets:
Related external links:
Any breaking news related to this market should be given a 24-hour grace period to allow for verification.
This market may remain unresolved for some time after Donald Trump next leaves office, perhaps not until his death.
This market’s posted close date is arbitrary.
The market creator shall not trade on this question so long as that user has the ability to resolve it.
Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Vice President becomes acting president under Sections 3 or 4 of the 25th Amendment (e.g., during medical emergencies), this time still counts toward Trump's time in office. Trump retains the office even when not exercising presidential powers, so this period is included in the day count even if extended.
Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump ties for a position (e.g., tied for 16th place), the market will resolve to that tied position (e.g., 16th), rather than having a separate "tied" option.
1,000
3.00I think this is implied, but just to make sure:
According to the 25th amendment, there are cases (e.g. medical emergencies) when the vice president can take over as acting president. I assume that you are still counting this "down time" toward the time in office? Is this still true if the vice president is acting president for an extended period of time?
Also, could we have an option for "Tied, but not for 2nd place"?
@hct That's correct, regarding Sections 3 and 4 of the 25th Amendment. As I understand it, the president still retains the office, but not the powers of the presidency, even after an extended amount of time.
@hct Instead of having other options for "tied" scenarios, it will just resolve to whatever position he ties for. For instance, if he leaves office on 30 October 2028, then he would be tied for 16th place with Harry Truman, and this market would resolve to "16th".