Potential snow storm might disrupt some flights.

Unlikely. There are a lot of presidents in the world.

If you mean US presidents - then the rules should say so.

this is pretty conclusive, no? https://apnews.com/article/trump-inauguration-obama-bush-clinton-f7212766dc0f69444d8a4537a736c2d2

@dlin007 chance someone falls ill, family emergency etc.

I think >90 but not 98

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso Disagree. This should be at 99%. Manifold is consistently underconfident and overestimates low-probability events. I actually don't remember a single <5% market that came through

@dlin007 https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024

@nikki yeah maybe I just didn't want to remember, given this also just happened in a related market. my broader point still stands

I'msurprised people are willing to bet it clear to 98.

Odds of Bush or Clinton having a medical reason to not attend seem worth a few points before we're even talking about someone just not showing up.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso yeah, I think this is where I sell my YES. The extra bit I could squeak out over the next few days doesn't seem worth the risk.

https://x.com/howardmortman/status/1877371147114664244?s=46&t=mqEUzsHObBgl7scl66V10A

https://x.com/howardmortman/status/1877371147114664244?s=46&t=mqEUzsHObBgl7scl66V10A

I think clinton and obama will for 1 or other reason try to avoid, but lets see how this goes

@PoliticalEconomyPK Bill will be there for sure

Clinton or Bidens health or one of the others having some sudden reasons isnt the weirdest possibility. Did they all state that they will attend?

Clinton, Bush, and Trump are all 4 years younger than Biden somehow

Clinton, Bush, Trump, and Biden got elected in reverse order of age (youngest first)

Sweeped!

Love this market, lots of moving parts!

Will he invite them?

You clever goose, this is a Jimmy Carter Death Market in disguise!

@Quroe lmaooo i love this part of it

The news priced in quickly.

@Quroe Not anymore

@Bart5f6d yeah im effed