Resolution by majority of credible media reports at market expiry as judged by me; I won't trade on my own answers.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If most information remains uncertain at the original market expiry date (Jan 12, 2026), the deadline will be extended for questions that remain uncertain.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of resolving whether a victim was specifically targeted, a victim is defined as someone who was physically harmed in the attack.
Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Deadliest shooting: Defined as occurring in the US (current 2025 record: 7 deaths).
The creator is waiting for further hospital discharges to rule out the possibility of the death count exceeding this record before resolving.
Update 2025-12-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait before resolving answers despite new information from the press conference, citing authorities' previous errors in suspect identification. Resolutions will not be made extremely quickly - patience will continue to be applied as it has been throughout the market.
1,000
3.00An eventful evening! Seemed at times like the reporters asking questions at the RI press conference were reading off of this list!
I'm going to wait a bit before churning through resolutions, given the authorities' impressive abilities to point at the wrong suspect, but it sure seems like this is the guy. But don't expect I'm going to resolve everything extremely quickly -- patience has served us well in this market so far. If you added one of these answers, especially feel free to suggest how your answer should be interpreted and resolved.
I lived for several years in Brookline, and did a physics minor at MIT in the late 90s, so this all is suddenly quite close to home. What an odd turn of events!
@bens When I wrote it, I conceived of it as something where the primary desire was in targeting either the Brown physics department specifically or the field of physics more generally, as opposed to just generically Brown students, a particular individual, or some unrelated political cause. I think it should resolve YES.
@bens he didn’t last very long. I suspect we’ll learn more about what he did that year and whether he worked as a TA or paid researcher etc
@bens up to the creator to judge this, I'll just add that Brown community received this by email from Pres Paxson: "Neves Valente was enrolled at Brown as a graduate student from Fall 2000 to Spring 2001, but he has no active affiliation with Brown and has not been affiliated with Brown since 2003. He was not a current student, was not an employee and did not receive a degree from the University, attending for only three semesters as a graduate student until taking a leave in 2001 and formally withdrawing effective July 31, 2003."
@nonnihil He flew to Providence from Miami in October, does that count as a resident of Rhode Island?
@FecalAbhuman (I took the opposite side and bet on it earlier)
While a market clearly cpuld choose to count death differently, it seems way more intuitive to include "weve recovered their body" under caught unless told otherwise.
Col. Perez said the suspect worked alone and the killings were not antisemitic in nature. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12/18/us/brown-shooting-suspect/5b9eabe4-a75b-51a1-b862-f5d6a52acbe8?smid=url-share
@Bayesian possibly professional jealousy of his much more successful classmate and/or anger at the program (and building) from which he dropped out
@nonnihil If the link to the MIT shooting is confirmed, does that affect the "at least one victim was specifically targeted" markets? I'm assuming that's only for the shootings that took place directly on Brown University's campus?