☘️What will happen in March 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
11
Ṁ565
Apr 1
98%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
97%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
92%
Ayatollah Khamenei will be alive the whole month
92%
A tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com
72%
the Two astronauts land alive on Earth
69%
web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month
69%
Large Tech company announces layoffs
59%
A YouTube video specifically about marching, matches, mars, arches, or archery is uploaded and gets >1M views
50%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
50%
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on lebanon
50%
The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all hit new all-time highs.
50%
Tiger Woods birdies a hole in PGA event
50%
usa politician pulicized visit to japan
50%
bitcoin reaches an all time high
50%
>= 67.0% of Manifold users agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the monthly poll
50%
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI at >= 94%
46%
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
43%
SpaceX launches >11 rockets
34%
There will be an earthquake anywhere on earth measuring 6.8 or above on the moment magnitude scale.
31%
Weak AGI exists, as defined by the Metaculus market on the topic having resolved YES before the end of the month

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I'm not sure who added it, but weak AGI cannot be achieved for the first time in the monthly poll because it already was achieved in the December 2024 poll.

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