@KnowNothing Cenk was born in Turkey and is ineligible for the role of president, lol

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@FoxKHTML big limit order at 18% on NO if you want action

No Daniel Lurie?

Way too many names on this list for "other" to be so high

@DavidOman about half of these names are jokes / obviously impossible (Hunter Biden? Donald Trump?)

I think 17% is quite reasonable for "someone outside the top 30 or so contenders wins the primary 4 years from now", considering that it happened in 2008 with Obama and 2016 with Trump!

He will win. Most Democrats (who are not chronically online) want an “out” from the trans craze, and Newsom is giving them one. They want a Bill Clinton democrat, and that’s Newsom.

@FoxKHTML how is Newsom similar to Bill Clinton?

@ZaneMiller Straight tall white hetero man moderate

@FoxKHTML I disagree. I think what we're seeing is less people "wanting an out," and more simple media effects. Right now, much like in the 2000s, democratic leadership is languishing in a sort of Spiral of Silence mindset on LGBT issues. They're looking at the poll numbers, seeing that they aren't super high, and they third-rail the issue - which pushes those poll numbers lower, because a lack of vocal opposition looks identical to bipartisan support.
I think if 2028 rolls around and we see a candidate in actual, vocal support for trans rights (i.e. NOT the noncommittal non-statements we got from Harris in 2024), those poll numbers start going up, the "chronically online" base comes out to vote in the primaries, and Newsom starts getting asked about his past positions.

🤡

Never mind, going all in on Newsom was a bad guess. Feels like he's gonna be chasing the electorate from last year, instead of the 2028 electorate - I don't see statements like this getting him far in a democratic primary, especially if it's a crowded one like I'd expect. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/06/gavin-newsom-breaks-with-democrats-on-trans-athletes-in-sports-00215436

@Marnix it's sad, but you may be right that those majoritarian positions Newsom is taking will likely preclude him from winning a primary, assuming the Democrats have learned nothing from 2024.

@AlQuinn I agree. Kamala had something like this during both her runs where she refused to take any unsafe position. Numbers-chasing positions are inherently weak ones — if those numbers change, you suddenly have a whole host of statements you have to disavow and positions to flip on, and no one likes a flip-flopper. Newsom already looks like a man without any convictions! He doesn't need to add more on that!

@Marnix By contrast, Trump is clearly a man with convictions!

@AlQuinn 34 of them!

@DylanSlagh it might be fun to add Elissa Slotkin to the listed options in advance of her delivering the congressional address response this evening (2025-03-04). As a relatively high profile moderate Senator with a bunch of national security experience, she seems as likely as many of the listed individuals already listed to end up a serious contender for the nomination.

Josh Shapiro doesn’t have the look to be president. His eyes are too close together

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/22/mark-cuban-president-2028-022225

@Ibozz91 I kinda have a feeling that being a billionaire might be disqualifying for the 2028 dem nomination… I wish it wouldn’t be, but with the way the political winds are shifting

Of course this is just name recognition, but this poll caused me to update a bit:

@DylanSlagh I think this option is undervalued.

- If the primary field is fractured like 2020 and Harris runs, Harris's name recognition is probably enough to make her the favorite.
- Highly educated voters, who turn out disproportionately in low-turnout elections like midterms, now make up a disproportionate amount of the Democrats' coalition. If they win large majorities in 2026, Harris may conclude (rightly or wrongly) that she could win the general.
- The 2020 primary featured a prominent left-wing candidate in Bernie Sanders, and the moderates were eventually forced to coalesce around the moderate candidate with the most name recognition to prevent his victory. A similar process could play out if a candidate like AOC runs in 2028.

Another 5,000 limit order on Newsom YES at the current probability

How on earth is Kamala Harris at 4%? Surely it would be insane to re-nominate the candidate that just suffered the worst electoral defeat in recent history

@TheAllMemeingEye Kamala lost by basically the same electorally as Trump in 2020 and he was renominated

@TheAllMemeingEye

I agree it would be insane given her weakness as a candidate, but 49.8% to 48.3% is pretty tight for presidential election standards. Both Hillary and Biden beat Trump by a larger margin than that.

@Tripping Kamala lost both the electoral college and the popular vote, meanwhile Hillary won popular vote but still lost the electoral college.

It seems a reasonable inference that the bias of the electoral college towards smaller, rural, conservative states means that to win you need a democratic party candidate that's likely to not just barely win the popular vote, but win it by a landslide, just to even have a chance of winning the electoral college by a large enough margin that the republicans don't think it was swung by rigging and storm the capital.

@TheAllMemeingEye while the electoral college does give more electors per voters to smaller rural states those states are mostly locked in for republicans. What really determines the outcome of the election is the tipping point states. For instance in 2008 the tipping point state was Colarado which had a democratic bias relative to the country as a whole. Kamala did about as well in the tipping point state as she did among the general population, while biden did worse. It’s reasonable to think whoever the democrat is in 2028 could do even better in key swing states if they keep it up with suburban voters who dominate in the current swing states.

I think a more salient factor here is that Trump's base did not think he lost the 2020 election, whereas Harris's base thinks she lost the 2024 election. Excluding Trump, it's been over 50 years since a losing candidate was renominated.

Also, Harris dropped out very early in the last primary she participated in.

@TheAllMemeingEye Kamala was handed the hot potato of Biden's failed run, and expected to hail mary a tough election. She might still be(is, tbh) a poor candidate, but this election was no indictment of her. If anything, she overperformed expectations because what was supposed to be a foregone L looked 50/50 until the very end

@dlin007 I suppose I'm thinking in terms of the public perception of her rather than the actual statistical analysis of her performance, I get the impression that the public now considers her a laughing stock and a failure, which seem like they would lead to a repeat low morale and low turnout

@TheAllMemeingEye i basically agree, and there's <1% she gets renominated but i just wanted to defend her honor after this slanderous smear ;)
> the candidate that just suffered the worst electoral defeat in recent history