What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris ElectedThis market only resolves 1 answerResolves YES To The Event That Occurs FirstTo Meet Re-Election:
Harris must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:
Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine
Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
SIMILAR MARKET:
1,000
3.00An Israeli cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas was delayed Thursday morning, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the militant group of “reneging” on parts of the agreement.
Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet would not convene until Hamas accepted all elements of the deal. A Hamas official said on social media that the group is committed to the agreement announced Wednesday. Neither provided any further details.
(Please read the description, since this potential ceasefire may overlap awaiting Trumps Inauguration and the 10 days required for Israel/Hamas criteria, as of now the only way this resolves to Israel/Hamas would be if the ceasefire continues and Trumps inauguration is delayed to a date after day 10 of the ceasefire)
--
Israel and Hamas agree to Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, source says
The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a source briefed on the talks tells CNN.
Under the deal, which is yet to be formally announced, Hamas and its allied militant groups are expected to release 33 hostages seized from Israel during the attacks of October 7, 2023.
In return, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
The agreement would deliver the first reprieve from war for the people of Gaza in more than a year, and only the second since the Israeli bombardment began.
Once confirmed, it is expected that the deal will allow Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza and there would be a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the strip, where residents have long faced dire humanitarian conditions.
Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
Does this mean the clarification in this comment and in the answer to 2 comments below are not to be considered clarifications on the resolution criteria?
Don't have any stakes here, but I would have expected (70-80%) the market to close after inauguration, then waiting whether the ceasefire (supposed it goes into effect before inauguration) lasts 10 days.
@Primer No further Clarifications need to be added to the description.
While I did make comments to questions, they are nothing more than confirmation of what the description already says.
@EBSnyder I disagree, see e.g. Timothy's statement below
I sold my stake, because I'm not sure if that's how the creator will interpret the criteria.
Hamas says ceasefire-hostage agreement with Israel is in "final stages"
From CNN's Abeer Salman
Talks with Israel to reach a ceasefire-hostage agreement in Gaza have reached their “final stages,” Hamas said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that it hoped the latest round of negotiations will conclude with “a clear and comprehensive agreement.”
Hamas also said it had informed Palestinian factions about the progress made talks and that the leaders of the factions were satisfied with the developments.
“The leadership of the movement and the various factions emphasized the continuation of communication and consultation,” Hamas said.
@jfjurchen I sold my stake, because I'm not sure if that's how the creator will interpret the criteria.
@jfjurchen That's true, but, what if the inauguration doesn't happen on said date or trump is assassinated, or anything that changes the normal timeline. You never know, but nothing ever happens.
Wars in Ukraine and Gaza: Trump said Russia’s war in Ukraine could “escalate” and that it is “much more complicated.” Trump also warned that if hostages being held in Gaza are not released by his inauguration, “all hell will break out” in the Middle East.
From CNN's Sam Fossum
Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain
(Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)
@JohnLynch the description says he must be inaugurated to resolve
To Meet Re-Election:
Harris must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say
From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
Harris Picks Walz As VP
