Update 2025-16-01 (PST): • Day One is defined as 24 hours after being sworn in as President. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - If an action occurs prior to Trump taking office that makes it impossible to resolve yes, the market will resolve as N/A. (AI summary of creator comment)
@JussiVilleHeiskanen A bigger issue is the record cold. At 25 degrees colder and probably 40 degrees colder in wind chill, it's unlikely he could draw the same number of people even though he is considerably more popular now.
@jks Does Musk have to appear on stage? Or would Musk being, say, in the front row at the inauguration count
@Quroe Paavo Väyrynen, a finnish politician has a special relationship in popular culthure (inadvertent spello I will let ride) with the great ancients as the lovecraftian gods are termed in finnish.
For context
https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/
Risks from artificial intelligence
Catastrophic pandemics
Nuclear weapons
Great power conflict
Factory farming
Global priorities research
Building effective altruism
Improving decision making (especially in important institutions)
He doesn't have to say the exact words e.g. "we got so many nukes you wouldn't believe" would count for nuclear weapons
Improving decision making (especially in important institutions)
@TheAllMemeingEye Would "we'll drain the swamp in DC" count?
@skibidist hmm, might be a bit too removed on its own, would probably need to be more like "I promise America I will fix the government, I'll end corruption, drain the swamp, it'll be great" or something like that
@TheAllMemeingEye thanks for reminding me to do my annual watch of Trump's powerful exposition on nuclear proliferation:
I usually end up around here on the compass test. I'll be a fair judge and only resolve yes if he does something that makes me think "based" when I read about it.
@Krantz We're strictly talking about the extraterrestrial variety, correct? Not the context of immigration? If I bet, I don't want to get genie loopholed.