Resolves to YES if law enforcement officials or consensus of credible news sources identify the shooter in the Charlie Kirk attack as having connections to the Groyper movement or being a follower of Nick Fuentes by December 31, 2025.
Resolves NO otherwise (no shooter identified by market close, shooter with left-leaning politics etc.)
Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the resolution becomes controversial, the creator will decide the outcome via a poll.
Update 2025-09-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Poll usage: Only for genuine edge cases (e.g., when credible outlets like NYT, WaPo, and WSJ are split on whether the shooter is "linked to Groypers").
Clear evidence: If law enforcement or a consensus of credible sources clearly indicates YES or NO, the market will resolve accordingly without a poll.
1,000
3.00The trans markets do not contradict this. Groypers have a policy of "don't ask, don't tell" where queer desire can safely be expressed through identification with the leader and with anime personae.
https://manifold.markets/jumpman_folder/nick-fuentes-publicly-comes-out-or?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ
@Simon74fe nononononono that's a bad idea, I was about to bet but thankful I saw this. How can this be controversial? If NYT + WaPo + WSJ says yes then YES, if No then NO.
@FergusArgyll I wanted to keep the option of a community-based resolution open because I have a large position in this market myself. But a poll would only be used for genuine edge cases, like if NYT + WaPo + WSJ are split on whether a connection counts as 'linked to Groypers.' If evidence is clear either way, the market will be resolved accordingly without a poll