resolves yes only if
the gun is the one used by the shooter
the bullets and/or gun are confirmed real and exist
there are statements clearly pro-transgender on the bullets or gun
these can be confirmed by sources that i deem trustworthy
the shooter agrees with the statements ie it is not a false flag, by my judgement
also note
this market is about the transgender claim, not the antifa claim, so if they reference only pro-antifa statements, that wont be enough to resolve TRUE

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Additional condition for resolving YES: The shooter must end up agreeing with the statements on the gun/bullets.
I think it’s still quite plausible that the intention of the message was pro-trans!
@bens The bulge one? I still really really strongly disagree that that meme is about transness in any way
@Robincvgr memes mean different things than they originated to mean! I think from context clues (his partner and roommate, the question Kirk was asked immediately before the shot, etc) it seems more likely than not that the intent of the message was pro-trans, insofar as "pro-trans" means something in this context. I'm obviously not passing moral judgment on this or think this has any impact on the event, but memes take on new meanings in different contexts, that's basically the entire point of memes, and the phrase "notices bulges" obviously has a dual meaning that Robinson would have been far from the first to pick up on. As I pointed out earlier, the use of this meme in forums has been used in a trans-specific context for a long time, it's not a novel usage.
@bens I guess I'm not sure how @strutheo will litigate "these can be confirmed by sources that i deem trustworthy" but I would say that if Tyler Robinson were given truth serum about his intent in scratching those words into the bullet casing, I would bet at pretty high odds that the intent was as I am claiming.
@jim That's a crazy interpretation. If the transcriptions weren't trans-related, then he didn't have pro-trans transcriptions on his guns. You wouldn't give a market on him being a black man 50% because he was a man after all.
(I don't hold any positions in this market)
"Notices bulges; what's this" should absolutely count. That's pretty unambiguous
EDIT: okay, it's NOT unambiguous clearly
@strutheo yes, I know the origins, but I think the meaning has shifted over time, and paired with the other language on the bullet (anti-fascist stuff) and the timing of the shot (during a question on trans shootings), I think the meaning is pretty clear
nah this is an internet meme it is not specific to transgender people.... i can see why people might be confused with how its been used lately though, and im sure trump and maga will purposely claim it is, i do not think that is a truthful claim and to resolve this yes would only serve that narrative
@bens I'm sorry, but as an expert on these matters, it really, really hasn't. It's still very solidly a furry meme
@bens literally the only time i have seen "notices ur bulge owo" used in any transgender context it's been in a transphobic context
@strutheo if you search "notices bulges" in any webforum (make sure to filter by dates before Sep 12th, lol) you'll get about 80% content from furry community and 20% content from the trans community
I'm not gonna paste screenshots here but like: https://x.com/search?q=%22notices%20bulges%22%20until%3A2025-09-11&f=live&src=typed_query