@MatthewDonovan why so confident in a conservative outcome?

This market is a bit more confident about a liberal majority https://manifold.markets/copiumarc/liberal-party-of-canada-majority-go

Liberals now forecasted to have majority government. Incredible.

Arb opportunity: https://manifold.markets/DanielGallant/what-will-be-the-results-of-the-202-lZQqUqqZu9

This market prefers conservatives compared to 338 prediction which prefers liberals

@chris Note that 338 is "the election if it were held today," which is different than predicting the election in so-and-so months.

https://manifold.markets/dittopoop/will-the-conservative-party-of-cana

Im an LPC believer too but im SO CONFUSED why this market is consistently 10pts lower

I'm so confused, can't multiple of these resolve yes?

@HillaryClinton I assumed that if Conservatives have more seats than liberals, but still a minority, it would resolve to Conservative minority.

Is that what you are confused about or something else?

@Seanny123 so what if conservatives have a majority and liberals have a minority?

@HillaryClinton only one party can form government

I'm honestly surprised Manifold is still favouring the Conservatives.