Note: This market will not resolve before at earliest 9/18.
Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market.
For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - Being trans, expressing support for Palestine, and hatred for an individual are not enough to signify any particular lean devoid of any other context. Each of these positions could be taken from basically all of the available options.
If their political lean is too wrapped up in, say, state-sponsorship, being a spy or secret agent, some baffling edge case like that, this will probably resolve "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - The messages on the bullets, on their own, are not enough to resolve this market, in my opinion.
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): I'll attempt to use a scale more closely aligned with the general public than any personal scale. This linked comment has various examples of signifiers that could indicate lean, and lists various past shootings based on how they'd probably have resolved under this framework.
Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the shooter is confirmed to be solely motivated by Kirk's anti-trans stance, and no other credible political positions are known by market close, the market will resolve Left-wing.
1,000
3.00We're in a volatile information space. It's important that we allow there to be things to settle a bit. We need time for information to be released, be confirmed, and be verified for accuracy. People can be wrong, and have been already over the course of the last few days. Any evidence we see right now, even from seemingly trustworthy sources, may turn out to be bullshit the day after. As a result, no matter how damning the evidence one way or another, this market will not resolve for at least one week (9/18), so that an understanding of the shooter (or at least a narrative surrounding the understanding of the shooter) can coalesce. No exceptions.
My plan with this market is to keep it open until the close date, but I reserve the right to resolve this market sometime after 9/18 if something I deem blatantly obvious enough to warrant a resolution comes out and is borne out to be true, such as leaked neo-nazi chat logs or a history of trans activism or some kinda bafflingly nonpartisan luigi-style manifesto (This feels unlikely, but not impossible).
@Marnix if it is confirmed that he is solely motivated by Kirk's anti-trans stance and no new credible evidence comes out about Tyler's stance on any other political issues by close date, how would you resolve?
@spadespredictooor As they used Kirks politics as an enhancement, they need to prove his political beliefs in court. We will eventually get proof of his views
@spadespredictooor plenty of people are strongly motivated by single issues. Whether you count a single-issue voter/shooter as a centrist is debatable
@spadespredictooor idk, suppose there is a someone who assassinated a democrat solely because they are anti-gun-control, and they have no other political views... Im not sure if I'd call them rightwing
@spadespredictooor to give a real life example, take Luigi. He is clearly a single-issue (healthcare) shooter. It is not clear at all whether he's leftwing or right-wing,
@Silksongisntreal can't tell if you are trolling, but I'm fairly sure this is not the criteria used for this market
@EdisonYi but his prolgbt beliefs are why he assassinated Kirk. Which means he is left wing. How much right wing belief does he need for it to balance out him being an assassin for left wing reasons
@Silksongisntreal Yup, at this point, if your position is the guy isn't left wing explaining why is going to be mighty complicated... to the point that it borders on trolling (and I say that as a complement). I guess some folks just like a challenge.
@Silksongisntreal If "being fine with lgbt people" is left-wing, being pro-2A certainly is right-wing
@EdisonYi I dont think this is a good example, because we could all just make single issue voters, if i was to be honest i struggle to see how some one would be a complete centrist or even right winger and shoot a democrat for the sole reason that they are anti 2a
its clear he had an issue with kirks rhetoric so much so that he shot him, is this something centrists do? I personally doubt it, to what extent having a trans partner and scribbling anti fascist memes in your bullets is left wing can be debatable but for me, this isnt something some one on the right or center would do its a very polarizing issue (even as tracked by trans acceptance rates)
@Xizted its right wing coded i will agree that much but more and more queer people have been picking up guns as its seen as a way to defend yourself for an increasingly anti lgbtq rightwing
@Xizted what the DNC believes does not mean left wing. Reagan was pro 2A until the black panthers took up arms
@Silksongisntreal I think that leftwing and rightwing is about overall ideology. Caring about single issues for idiosyncratic or personal reasons (like your romantic partner) isn't sufficient. But I accept that you may disagree
@Silksongisntreal Those were your exact words. You claimed that "being fine with lgbt people is left-wing". I was answering your question about what would be right wing enough to counter the pro-lgbt views. I think someone who is pro-lgbt and pro-2A would be a centrist. I also think there are levels to being pro-trans. Obviously there could be other political views he held that makes him left-wing, I personally used advocating for medicare4all as an example, but we dont yet have any direct evidence of that.
@BrunoClawfeld shooter's mom said he's become "more left", unclear relative to what. This is not conclusive at all. Being more left relative to his MAGA family could just mean centrist.
@BrunoClawfeld I dont think she is a credible enough witness. From what we have seen so far, I dont think there has been much contact between Tyler and the family in the last years, as they did not accept his sexuality
@EdisonYi He also said his father has been MAGA since Trump got elected, which supports what you are saying
@BrunoClawfeld I dont believe they can get the politics based enhancement with the mothers testimony alone, I would assume they need more proof
@Xizted Sure, mom + prosecutor isn’t enough. Next you’ll want a notarized affidavit from the family dog.
@BrunoClawfeld I have been very clear all the way about what would be enough for me to resolve this as left wing: chat log of him discussing a left-wing position on a topic such as immigration, healthcare or abortion
@Xizted At this point the last stand of the 'no left' is bordering on heroic. Gonna dip out. Respect tho.
@BrunoClawfeld I have been saying he is most likely left-wing for a while. I assumed he was a centrist "school shooter" type at the beginning, but after the first info started to come out I started to think he probably was left-wing. I just dont think "most likely" is enough to resolve the market at this point.
Edit: I had a left wing position but sold it to get at least some of mana I wasted on Center back.
@Xizted Obviously I dont think the resolve criteria should be the same as in court, but clearly I have higher burden of proof than most people here. In any case the OP said this market wont be resolved until friday unless something eartshattering comes out, so this is all pointless.
Edit: For what its worth I probably would put this at 2/13/85 myself